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International Raw Materials Market

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I roduc io Raw Ma erials - A a ural of semifi ished god ha is used i ma ufac uri g or processi g o make some o her good. Bauxi e is he raw ma erials (ore) from which alumi um is made; alumi um is ur ca be he raw ma erial from which household u e sils are ma ufac ured. here is a o her defi i io s from he subjec area of raw ma erials dis i c from he above me io ed: Raw ma erials are produc s immedia ely ex rac ed from a ure which have u dergo e a firs processi g hrough which hey have become marke able a d, co seque ly, a radable commodi y. Raw ma erials i clude all e ergy raw ma erials (crude oil, a ural gas, coal, ura ium), me als, semi-me als a d i dus rial mi erals (kaoli , graphi e, sulfur, sal s, phospha es), rocks, wa er as well as all pla a d a imal produc s, whe her hey come from ropical regio s (coffee, ju e, ropical imber) or from empera e la i udes (whea , mea , wool, e c.). Raw ma erial eco omy: I comprises all ac ivi ies which are par of he pla ed ha dli g of raw ma erials, i.e. expla a io , evalua io , ex rac io , co versio i o a radable produc , rade a d forecas i g. "Pla ed" here mea s eco omically useful, ecologically a d socially respo sible ac ivi ies. Resources are all a ural ma erial sys ems which as such are o commodi ies, bu he i ac ess of which is a basic prerequisi e for he co i ued exis e ce of he ear h's chemical a d physical equilibrium a d, co seque ly, for he survival of ma ki d. Resources i clude: he ozo e bala ce, he CO2 bala ce, he equilibrium of sea wa er, he ropical fores , he krill a d fish popula io , e c. World resource bala ces are he pla ed (i.e. ecologically useful a d socially respo sible) ha dli g of resources. his comprises: he expla a io , evalua io , risk assessme a d forecas i g regardi g world resources. i er a io al raw ma erial bala ces supply problems of he i dus rial cou ries loca io disadva ages of he developi g cou ries dumpi g problems i i er a io al raw ma erial rade recycli g as a source for raw ma erials raw ma erial deposi s a d co ec ed e viro me al problems i eas Siberia (adde dum 1) s ruc ural ques io s a d e viro me al problems of he Polish e ergy a d me al eco omy I. rade i ermedia es a d a ural resources O ce i er a io al rade i more ha fi al co sumer goods is allowed, basic o io s of compara ive adva age eed o be re-exami ed. We have already discussed he limi a io s i a mul i-commodi y word of compari g au arky prices i wo cou ries o predic i em-by-i em he pa er of rade; ge erally o ly correla io s ca be made excep u der addi io al assump io s. Wi h rade i i ermedia es allowed, he problems i predic i g rade i fi al goods became eve grea er. As MakKe zie (1945) remarked i o e of his classic problem o he Ricardia model, he familiar i e ee h ce ury rade pa er i which La cashire produced a d expor ed co o ex iles would mos probably o have bee observed if E gla d had had o grow i s ow co o . We shall have occasio bo h i his sec io a d o rever o his heme: he pa er of rade i fi al goods may o be readily deducible from he compariso of pre- rade rela ive prices i hese marke s.

I.I Middle produc s (i ermedia es) he phrase middle-produc s was used by Sa yal a d Jo es (1982) o e compass wha radi io ally are referred o as i ermedia e goods, goods-i -process, a d a ural resources which have bee ex rac ed a d prepared for rade o world marke s. he core co cep i heir model is ha of a produc ive spec rum whereby, a i i ial s ages, a ural resources a d raw ma erials are processed a d, i he fi al s ages, goods-i -process a d i ermedia e produc s are locally assembled for a io al co sump io . I er a io al rade, accordi g o his view, akes place i commodi ies, somewhere i he middle of his produc ive spec rum, freei g up a a io s i pu requireme s i he fi al s ages of produc io from i s ou pu radeable middle produc s a earlier s ages. Such a view of he role of i er a io al rade sugges s a a ural divisio be wee ha par of he eco omy which produces commodi ies (middle produc s) for he world marke (i cludi g he local eco omy), called he I pu ier, a d ha sec io of he eco omy which makes use of i er a io ally raded middle produc s as i pu alo g wi h local resources o produce o e- rade goods for fi al co sump io ( he Ou pu ier). Ruled ou by assump io i he simple versio o his model is he o io ha he middle s ages of he produc ive spec rum migh be hick i he se se ha radeable middle produc s migh use o her radeable middle produc s as i pu s. I addi io , i produc io s ruc ure i each ier of he eco omy as assumed o resemble ha of he specific-fac ors model. Labor is mobile bo h amo g sec ors i each ier a d be wee iers. he bala ce of payme s provides a addi io al li k be wee he wo iers; if he rade accou is bala ced, he value of o al ou pu from he I pu ier of he eco omy is ma ched by he value of middle produc s used as i pu s (alo g wi h labour) i he Ou pu ier. Several ypes of ques io s have bee raised i he co ex o his model, a d of ce ral co cer i each case is he alloca io of labour be wee iers a d he real wage. Fore example, a ra sfer payme which gives rise o a rade surplus requires labour o be realloca ed o he I pu ier as co sump io falls, a d his serves u ambiguously o reduce he real wage. If domes ic (a d world) prices of rade middle produc s remai co s a o he small cou ry, all o -labour i pu s i he Ou pu ier ca be aggrega ed, a la Hicks, i o a composi e middle produc i pu , which serves o co ver he produc io s ruc ure i he Ou pu ier from a ( 1)-fac or, -commodi y specific-fac ors model i o a wo-fac ors, ma y-commodi y Heckscher-Ohli model. I he middle-produc s model I pu ier is he exis e ce of a world marke i which middle produc s ca be excha ged for each o her ha permi s such a co versio . he middle-produc s model allows cou ries a d sec ors o differ i he ex e o which local value mus be added o ra sform middle produc s i o fi al commodi ies, a d much depe ds upo his compariso . I does o , however, focus upo a o her ques io : i à ver ical produc io s ruc ure wi h ma y s ages, which goods-i -process or middle produc s does à cou ry impor a d which does i expor ? wo rece papers have ackled his issue i depe de ly a d wi h differe models.

Sa yal (1980) assumes ha i each of wo cou ries à commodi y is produced i à co i uum of s ages, wi h differe Ricardia labor-o ly i pu s ruc ures. Depe di g upo ech ological differe ces a d rela ive cou ry size, à cu -off poi will be de ermi ed, wi h o e cou ry produci g he commodi y from raw ma erial s age o some i ermedia e poi , a d he expor i g his good-i -process o he o her cou ry where labor is applied o fi ish he produc io process. By co ras , Dixi a d Grossma (1982) use à specific-fac ors model, wi h o e of he commodi ies (ma ufac uri g) produced i à co i uum of s ages usi g capi al a d labor ( he o her sec or usi g la d a d labor) . hese s ages are arra ged such ha , as goods-i -process develop owards he fi al s age, more labor-i e sive ech iques are required. hus wi h wo cou ries, he labor-abu da cou ry will e d o specialize i la er s ages of he produc ive spec rum hey a alyze how e dowme cha ges al er he cu -off poi , as well as i ves iga i g issues rela ed o co e pro ec io . I.II a ural resources As Chap er 8 i his volume discusses, he orma ive ques io of prici g a ural resources (exhaus ible or re ewable) has received much a e io i he li era ure of he pas decade. he middle-produc s approach s resses ha some ac ivi ies, he ex rac io of a ural resources, mus ake place locally al hough i er a io al rade he allows o her cou ries access o hese resources. Obviously, compara ive adva age cha ges over ime for cou ries e gaged i expor i g exhaus ible resource. I early work Va ek (1963) raced hrough he cha gi g pa er of U i ed S a es rade i a ural resources, a d sugges ed ha asymme ries i resource use a d availabili y could accou for he Leo ief paradox. I à co ex of mul i-level rade, he cos s of recourse ex rac io i o e cou ry of e depe d o he availabili y of foreig capi al. Kemp a d Ohyama (1978) have prese ed à simple model of or h - Sou h rade i which Sou h makes use of or her capi al o develop i s resources a d expor s hese resources o he or h where hey are used o produce fi al commodi ies. hey pu heir model o use i explori g he orma ive issue of differe degrees of bargai i g s re g h a d abili y o exploi via expor axes a d ariffs i he wo regio s. Bu he model also s resses he i volveme of capi al flows i resource ex rac io . Schmi z a d Helmberger (1979) argue s ro gly for compleme ari y be wee rade i resources a d rade i capi al, à poi also s ressed by Williams i his 1929 ar icle. We ur o co sider more ge erally, ow, he i erac io be wee rade i goods a d rade i fac ors. Adde dum 1 Siberia is Amo g Leaders i Raw Ma erials Marke s Siberia's ra i g looks more impressive i some groups of goods ha i s 7- h ge eral placi g. Spli he whole flow of commercial projec s i o 9 groups of goods, a d for 6 of hem Siberia joi s he leadi g hree: imber a d Paper I Siberia 32.6 II Moscow 19.1

Given this fact, the proba]bility of over-population leading through unrest to dic]tatorship becomes a virtual certainty. It is a pretty safe bet that, twenty years from now, all the world's over-populated and underdeveloped countries will be under some form of totalitarian rule probably by the Communist party. How will this development affect the over-populated, but highly industrialized and still democratic coun]tries of Europe? If the newly formed dictatorships were hostile to them, and if the normal flow of raw materials from the underdeveloped countries were de]liberately interrupted, the nations of the West would find themselves in a very bad way indeed. Their in]dustrial system would break down, and the highly de]veloped technology, which up till now has permitted them to sustain a population much greater than that which could be supported by locally available resources, would no longer protect them against the consequences of having too many people in too small a territory. If this should happen, the enormous powers forced by unfavorable conditions upon central govern]ments may come to be used in the spirit of totalitarian dictatorship

1. Na/Ca-

2. Cest le cas des mouvements scouts: quelque 300 mille


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