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Transitional Success: USSR to EU

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he Czech Republic ra si io al Success: USSR o EU Public fi a ce policy issues duri g he poli ical eco omic ra si io from ce rally pla ed socialis eco omics o free marke democra ic capi alism. V550 Dr. Mikesell ovember 20, 1996 Rick Ferguso rfergus@i dia a.edu Eric Mar i emar i @i dia a.edu Dmi ri Masli che ko dmi ri@mailroom.com able of Co e sI. I roduc io II. Poli ical Summary: Res ruc uri g for ra si io III. ra si io o Marke Eco omy: 1990 - 1991 IV. Problems of ra si io al Mo e ary Policy a d he Fi a cial Sec or: A Overview V. Macro Eco omic S abili y: 1993 - prese VI. Mo e ary Policy: 1993 VII. I ergover me al Fi a cial Rela io s VIII. Budge ary Overview: 1993 - prese IX. ax Reform X. Curre Poli ical Eco omic Co sidera io s: 1996 XI. he EU a d A O XII. Co clusio s XIII. Refere ces I roduc io I 1989, af er early 40 years of Sovie co rol, Czechoslovakia o ce agai became a i depe de a io , he Czech a d Slovak Federalis Republic. his ra si io from Sovie socialism o democracy culmi a ed hroughou Ce ral a d Eas er Europe wi h he li eral collapse of he Berli Wall i Eas Germa y, he heroic Gda sk Shipyard S rikes i Pola d. he s ude a d worker pro es s i Prague a d Budapes were o less impor a . he Czechoslovakia revolu io ook place peacefully a d over a much lo ger period of ime ha eve s i o her former Sovie U io or Warsaw Pac a io s. Hi s of major reform i Czechoslovakia bega as early as 1968. Czechoslovakia officials, u der Sovie power, moved i creme ally o begi he lo g road owards dece raliza io a d i depe de Czechoslovakia rule. heir i creasi gly effec ive effor s became k ow as he Prague Spri g, a ime of grow h, cha ge a d developme .Success was, of course, ei her immedia e or easy o achieve. he Cold War reached a pi acle i he Eigh ies a d he wi ds of cha ge bega o blow i Ce ral a d Eas er Europe. he CEE a io s e dured ma y hardships. Sovie oppressio , hough wa i g by his ime, became largely u bearable. Cha ge i Czechoslovakia came from he grou d up; disside s quie ly bega o re ur o popular power. he revolu io gai ed mome um by 1989. ‘Revolu io is s’ bega o dema d sweepi g eco omic a d poli ical reform. hey were backed by well orga ized a d very imely s rikes a d pro es s. Af er a wo hour ge eral s rike o ovember 27, 1989, provi g he immedia e a d widespread power a d cohesio of he revolu io , he Sovie co rolled au hori ies fi ally agreed o ego ia e. hrough he ego ia io process a d hrea of fur her massive ge eral s rikes, former disside s assumed officially sa c io ed ‘co cessio al’ posi io s. Wi hi mo hs, hey gai ed ear comple e (a d very real) co rol of he Federal Assembly. O December 29, 1989, Mr. Havel, a very famous a d popular Czech disside , became Preside of Czechoslovakia (re amed he Czech a d Slovak Federalis Republic). his i i ial poli ical vic ory represe s o ly half of he a io ’s success. Wi hi he firs hree years of self rule, harsh eco omic (a d subseque poli ical) reali ies forced he a io o divide o ce agai . he a io as a whole was u able o accommoda e he vas discrepa cies be wee he wes er Czech a d eas er Slovak regio s.

Massive eco omic reforms brough his o he popular age da as Slovakia suffered grea ly while heir Czech cou erpar s seemed o be efi from reform. he gover me i Prague wished o move swif ly o fur her reform effor s. Slovakia hi dered Czech success a d i ur suffered grea ly by his Czech- led reform. Slovakia simply could o move as rapidly oward a marke eco omy due o he eco omic co figura io lef o hem by years of Sovie pla ed eco omics. Poli ical Overview: Res ruc uri g for ra si io I 1992, Vladimir Meciar, a very s ro g a io alis was elec ed prime mi is er of he Slovak Republic, while Vaclav Klaus, a modera e federalis , was elec ed i he Czech Republic. U for u a ely, hese wo leaders were u able o agree o commo eco omic a d poli ical s ra egies o gover he CSFR. Klaus’s reform pla s, ow lege dary, were simply i appropria e for he fledgli g Slovak regio s. Slovakia s fel alie a ed from he gover me reform i Prague. Wi hi a shor ime i was very clear ha he Czech regio s could o comple ely suppor heir Slovak cou ryme hrough he ra si io . he wo leaders agreed o divide he Czech a d Slovak Federalis Republic (CSFR) i o he Czech a d Slovak Republics o Ja uary 1, 1993. Federal asse s a d liabili ies were spli be wee he wo a io s i a wo o o e ra io. he Czech Republic received he larger por io s reflec i g bo h size a d popula io . Agai , he spli was achieved peacefully, wi hou massive deba e. he wo cou ries agreed o form a cus oms u io . hey impleme ed ide ical foreig policies wi h respec o hird cou ries, a d forbid ariffs or ‘ba s’ be wee hemselves. hey also formed a emporary mo e ary u io , which collapsed wi hi mo hs as bo h cou ries u expec edly experie ced a massive drai o foreig reserves duri g his ime. o more fully u ders a d he curre developme s i he Czech Republic, o e mus exami e he his orical eco omic decisio s made before he break-up i 1993 as ou li ed below. ra si io o Marke Eco omy Overview: 1990-1991 CSFR eco omic reformers we o work immedia ely followi g he collapse of Sovie rule. he reform package i cluded ear comple e liberaliza io of prices, a comple e reversal of former excha ge a d rade sys ems a d a impressive prepara io for massive a d rapid priva iza io . hese effor s were suppor ed by fi a cial policies i cludi g a “pegged” excha ge ra e, curre cy devalua io s, a d res ric ive fiscal, mo e ary a d wage policies.Mo e ary PolicyAl hough mo e ary policy is discussed i a separa e sec io , i eeds o be briefly addressed here o u ders a d he co di io s i which he ra si io occurred. Mo e ary policy i he i i ial s ages of ra si io e sured ha i fla io remai ed i co rol hroughou curre cy devalua io s a d price liberaliza io s. he CSFR devalued i s curre cy by 20 perce i 1991 af er several smaller devalua io s before ha d. ake as a whole, hese devalua io s reduced he value of he curre cy by half wi hi six mo hs. Ge erally, mo e ary policy remai ed igh hroughou he e ire period. Fiscal PolicyU doub ably, he goals of he CSFR eco omic reformers were o dras ically reduce gover me spe di g. he former ce rally-pla ed, ou pu -drive eco omic policies were o lo ger effec ive for he ew capi alis democracy.

Res ruc uri g gover me expe di ures was a key compo e of reform. he mai cha ges, aside from massive priva iza io discussed below, forced reduced subsidies wherever possible. Every sec or of socie y, wi h he excep io of heal h, welfare a d educa io , saw a abrup e d o gover me subsidies. I 1991 alo e, for example, officials reduced gover me spe di g by 12 perce o reach 47 perce of GDP. his re d co i ued hroughou he ra si io . Massive gover me spe di g, a hallmark of socialism, e ded vir ually over igh .Areas where gover me spe di g remai ed high would remai so hroughou he reform process. Heal h a d welfare for poor, elderly, u employed a d childre is a very difficul si ua io i a y gover me , especially o e i ra si io . Reformers focused primarily o i dus ry a d e ergy i he i i ial s ages, leavi g he areas of grea er u cer ai y o be deal wi h i a more s able poli ical e viro me .Price Liberaliza io As a almos immedia e measure, subsidies o foods uffs a d e ergy were reduced by early 50 perce . Re ail prices for mos household i ems i creased by early 25 perce li erally over igh . By he e d of 1991, he Czech gover me co rolled o ly 6 perce of prices i he cou ry as compared wi h 85 perce i early 1990. O ly basic ecessi ies, oil, a d agricul ural produc s remai ed u der s a e co rol. o offse some of hese shocks, wages i creased, hough o ly sligh ly a d o early e ough o mee he i creased cos of livi g. Poli ically powerful rade u io s preve ed he passage of eve more dras ic reform measures. Pla s i 1991 o i crease he price of elec rici y, hea i g oil a d coal by early 400 perce a d re by 300 perce were delayed u il 1992 a d 1993.Foreig rade a d I ves me Af er a i i ial curre cy devalua io of early 50 perce , he gover me adop ed a adjus ed excha ge ra e co ec ed o a “baske ” of co ver ible hard curre cies. I er al co ver ibili y of hard curre cies was es ablished i 1991. hese wo measures combi ed o fos er rade a d i ves me . I i ially, he CSFR se a 20 perce surcharge o impor s coupled wi h a 5 perce ariff. hese obs acles soo e ded as major provisio s were passed o more ac ively e courage rade a d i ves me . I i ial s eps oward priva e proper y righ s a d he dissemi a io of publicly ow ed la ds fur her e ha ced he i ves me e viro me .Priva iza io Priva iza io is by far he mos cri ical a d complica ed developme he CSFR had o address. Speed was cri ical. he ‘defaul mecha ism’ e sured ha curre ma agers a d perso s of powers would assume co rol a d crea e heir ow joi ve ure agreeme s wi h foreig e i ies.S a e firms ha were early comple ely ver ically i egra ed eeded o be desegrega ed by form a d fu c io . A d he process had o be do e well, for flaili g i dus ries would simply i crease s a e expe di ures. Failures did o decrease expe di ures i complia ce wi h he ra si io al reform s ra egy. he CSFR priva iza io pla was hreefold. Small-scale priva iza io was he easies . Re ail s ores, res aura s a d small service or i dus rial workshops were sold o he highes bidders i weekly public auc io s. Where o CSFR buyers were fou d, a seco d rou d of auc io s allowed foreig ers o bid.P

We risked our concert careers. But somehow we knew we were mature, with an adult approach to ourselves and to music. "I know how I felt-a sort of ambivalence. I am a musician, so naturally I want to continue as one-a good one. But also, James and I had been so isolated all our lives that I was quite prepared to accept the feet that we might fail-and, failing as concert musicians, turn toward more normal lives. "It wasn't to be. We did succeed in bridging that dreaded gap of all who are labeled 'child prodigies'-the transition from child to an adult musician. I have known a number who went into retirement at the ripe age of fourteen or so-to emerge five to ten years later with the label almost forgotten, as mature adults and fine musicians. And I've known some who never made it back. The road back is long and hard. "In that respect James and I were fortunate. We did bridge the gap-in a single day. We were children-and very isolated, thoroughly guarded children, almost, you might say, preserved in childishness. If that had kept up it is quite possible our careers would have spun put into dismal, dwindling successes or failures

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