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Экономика и Финансы Экономика и Финансы     Экономическая теория, политэкономия, макроэкономика Экономическая теория, политэкономия, макроэкономика

Redesigning the Dragon Financial Reform in the Peoples Republic of China

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Redesig i g he Drago Fi a cial Reform i he Peoples Republic of Chi aDu ca Marsh dmarsh@i dia a.edu A a Pawul apawul@i dia a.edu Dmi ri Masli che ko dmi ri@mailroom.com V550, Gover me Fi a ce i he ra si io al Eco omies 21 ovember, 1996 I 1978, he People’s Republic of Chi a (PRC) embarked o he e ormous u der aki g of ope i g i s doors o he ou side world. U il his poi i ime, he PRC had relied o a ce ralized eco omic sys em much like ha of he former Sovie U io . However, he PRC’s si ua io differed wi h he former Sovie U io i hree subs a ial ways 1) al hough reforms followed he Cul ural Revolu io (which did exac i s oll o he Chi ese eco omy) here was a abse ce of severe macroeco omic crises whe reforms were begu 2) agricul ural i fras ruc ure was good, al hough he i ce ives were poor a d 3) Chi a had a s ro g prese ce of overseas Chi ese a d Ho g Ko g ha i flue ce i s eco omic developme a d over he years supplied capi al a d huma resources. he i dus rializa io s ra egy adop ed by he PRC has bee charac erized by gradualism a d experime a io . I s focus has bee o i roduce marke forces, reduce ma da ory pla i g, dece ralize, a d ope he eco omy o foreig i ves me a d rade. his s ra egy had hree mai s ages. he firs (1979-1983) es ablished four “Special Eco omic Zo es” (areas awarded special freedoms o co duc busi ess rela ively free of he au hori ies i erve io ) i Gua gdo g a d Fujia provi ces, he seco d (1984-1987) added 14 por ci ies crea i g he “Eco omic Developme Zo es”, a d fi ally he hird s age (1988-prese ) which ope ed mos of he cou ry o foreig rade a d crea ed “ ariff free zo es”. I he rural areas, la d reforms spearheaded fur her reforms a d also he es ablishme of ow ship a d Village E erprises ( VEs). hese e erprises were able o capi alize o he abu da cheap labor i rural areas a d o opera e wi hou he burde of providi g social spe di g. hey also provided a rai i g grou d for he lear i g of marke skills a d co cep s. oday, produc io of ma ufac ured goods by rural a d ow ship e erprise is es ima ed o accou for more ha 40% of he GDP. I ma y respec s, Chi a’s process of eco omic reform has bee highly successful. Si ce i s i cep io , he average GDP grow h has bee a world-leadi g 9.3% year, he pover y ra e has decli ed 60%, a d 170 millio Chi ese livi g i absolu e pover y have see heir s a dard of livi g raised above he mi imum pover y level. Expor grow h was 7.8% i 1993, 29% i 1994 a d 34.7% i 1995. Gover me measures o co rol i fla io , which had hrea e ed o overhea he eco omy i he early 1990s, seem o have ake effec : i fla io was u der 15% i 1995. (See ables 1 a d 2.) able 1.Source: EIU Cou ry Repor , Chi a/Mo golia, 3rd Quar er 1996. he Eco omis I ellige ce U i . able 2.Source: EIU Cou ry Repor , Chi a/Mo golia, 3rd Quar er 1996. he Eco omis I ellige ce U i . Chi ese eco omic reform has o e o her charac eris ic ha se s i apar from ha of he former Sovie U io , he abse ce of democra ic reforms. he curre ra si io is bei g carried ou wi hi he “socialis framework” a d for he mos par is ce rally co rolled. Much of he world wai ed o see whe her he eco omic ra si io would derail af er he ia a me i cide i 1989; i did o .

However Chi a did seem o be looki g for a way of separa i g i self from reforms a d democra ic upheaval ha were happe i g i he former Sovie U io . I 1992, De g Xiao Pi g oured he sou her eco omic zo es - a jour ey sig ifica for i s highly symbolic approval of he reform a d i ves me effor s he wi essed - a d coi ed he phrase “socialis marke eco omy”. De g emphasized ha his ra si io mus promo e he developme of produc ivi y, s re g he he a io al power a d improve people’s s a dard of livi g, s a i g ha , “.wi h all hese achieveme s secure, our socialis fou da io is grea ly s re g he ed.”. Wi hi his backdrop, we will ake a closer look a he sys em of reforms curre ly u derway i he People’s Republic of Chi a. his year marks he begi i g of he i h Five-Year Pla (1996-2000). Exami i g he i dividual par s ( he budge process, public expe di ure, axes, ba ki g, he i erac io be wee ce ral a d provi cial gover me s, a d he emergi g eed o ra sform he social safe y e ) will prese a clearer pic ure of wha has bee accomplished by he macroeco omic reforms pu i place i 1976 as well as wha s ill eeds o be do e.Reve ue, Expe di ure a d he Budge O e problem of major propor io faci g he Chi ese gover me is ha ce ral gover me reve ues are growi g a a much slower ra e ha he overall eco omy, a d a growi g budge defici has resul ed (see able 3 i Appe dix, page 20). his is especially debili a i g i he face of i creasi g dema ds from he surgi g eco omy for i ves me i i fras ruc ure a d wi h he eed for i ves me i a reformed social i sura ce sys em ha will come wi h eco omic disrup io s caused by co i ui g liberaliza io . Expe di ures have also bee falli g as a perce age of GDP, bu are growi g fas er ha reve ue. Several fac ors have bee ide ified i he shri ki g reve ue- o- expe di ures ra io problem: Reve ue ax arrears o he i dus rial a d commercial ax (CIC ) from e erprises, which are growi g as s a e-ow ed e erprises (SOEs) become more u profi able i he face of i creasi g compe i io . A he e d of 1994, hese arrears amou ed o 8.2 billio yua (Ґ), a d jus seve mo hs la er, he figure had grow o Ґ17.9 b . ax exemp io s gra ed by local gover me s o s a e-ow ed a d priva e e erprises. Expe di ures Subsidies o he loss-maki g SOEs, i he form of loa s or direc subsidies (see able 4). Chi a’s 1995 budge defici was arou d a mere 1.5% of GDP. If policy le di g by ce rally co rolled ba ks - mos of which is, effec ively, ra sfers o SOEs which ca ever afford o pay back hese loa s - is ake i o accou , he ce ral gover me ’s rue defici is 6% of GDP or higher. Price subsidies. (Mos of hese were for urba food, a d adjus me s made i 1992 have reduced his drai o he budge .) Higher ha expec ed i creases i expe di ures (i 1995, hese were 18% higher ha pla ed o he ce ral level, wi h local gover me expe di ures over 30% higher ha i 1994.) A drop of 10.7% i cus oms reve ue from 1994 o 1995. I fla io -i dexed i eres subsidies o ba k deposi s a d reasury bo ds, which have bee kep high by high i fla io ra es. able 4.Source: Wo g, Chris i e P.W., Chris opher Heady, a d Wi g . Woo.

Fiscal Ma ageme a d Eco omic Reform i he People’s Republic of Chi a. Oxford U iversi y Press. Ho g Ko g: 1995. For a cou ry co rolled by a Commu is par y, he gover me ’s propor io of eco omic ac ivi y has bee remarkably small, eve before impleme a io of reform. I 1995, official gover me spe di g was jus 11.6% of GDP. Off- he-books reve ue raisi g schemes by local gover me s may mea he s a e’s o al reve ue is wo imes he official level. he ex ra-budge ary reve ue i ves me was dispersed, u coordi a ed a d did o fulfill he ce ral gover me ’s i ves me priori ies. he ce ral gover me faced growi g i fras ruc ure dema ds, bu wi h shri ki g (i propor io a e erms) asse s available, has bee forced o reduce capi al co s ruc io spe di g subs a ially. Also, expe di ures o admi is ra io , cul ure, educa io , a d welfare i creased over he reform period, a d reduced he gover me ’s abili y o spe d o i fras ruc ure. (See able 5 i Appe dix, page 22.) he i creases i admi is ra io spe di g are par icularly roubli g, because of gover me policies o reduce co rol of he eco omy a d shri k some gover me bureaus. O e of he s a ed goals of he i h Five-Year Pla is o elimi a e he budge defici by year 2000. Bu his goal is highly u likely o be achieved due o o her co flic i g goals, like spurri g employme , which may mea i creasi g subsidies o u profi able SOEs; reduci g regio al i come dispari ies; a d s re g he i g agricul ure, which is see as a key o co rolli g i fla io . Chris i e Wo g, a exper o he Chi ese fi a cial sys em, ide ifies hree ecessary cha ges o res ore he heal h of he budge : Firs , he ax admi is ra io mus be s re g he ed. Seco d, he ax s ruc ure mus be reformed so ha i is eu ral across produc s a d sec ors. hird, he reve ue-shari g sys em be wee local, provi cial a d a io al levels of gover me mus be revamped, wi h clearer ax assig me s i li e wi h each levels se of respo sibili ies. he ce ral gover me ’s co rol over he ax sys em a d share of o al reve ues will likely have o be i creased. he ex wo sec io s will address hese proposed cha ges. axa io he Pre-Reform ax Sys em Prior o eco omic reforms, Chi a’s ax s ruc ure was based o he Sovie model. E erprises remi ed heir profi o he gover me , re ai i g o ly wha was ecessary o pay expe ses. Reve ues were collec ed by local gover me s, a d a cer ai amou was fil ered up o he ce ral gover me . I 1984, his was replaced by a sys em of e erprise i come axa io reform, i which compa ies were axed o heir profi s, as he gover me ried o respo d o eco omic imbala ces crea ed by he emergi g priva e sec or. he ur over ax ( he Co solida ed I dus rial a d Commercial ax, or CIC ), which had bee he larges co ribu or o he gover me ’s a ual reve ue, was replaced wi h a busi ess ax, a produc ax, a d a value-added ax (VA ). hese fea ured highly differe ia ed ax ra es across sec ors, ypes of good a d service, a d form of firm ow ership. Mos priva e firms paid a base ax ra e of 33%, while mos s a e- ow ed e erprises (SOEs) were omi ally axed a 55%. I prac ice, however, axes paid were gover ed by a co rac respo sibili y sys em (CRS), i which e erprises ego ia ed i dividually wi h local gover me u i s.

The World Bank reported that in 1990 there were roughly 375 million people in China living in extreme poverty, on less than $ 1 per day. By 2001, there were 212 million Chinese living in extreme poverty, and by 2015, if current trends hold, there will be only 16 million living on less than $1 a day. In South Asia-primarily India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh-the numbers go from 462 million in 1990 living on less than $1 a day down to 431 million by 2001 and down to 216 million in 2015. In sub-Saharan Africa, by contrast, where globalization has been slow to take hold, there were 227 million people living on less than $1 a day in 1990, 313 million in 2001, and an expected 340 million by 2015. The problem for any globalizing country lies in thinking you can stop with reform wholesale. In the 1990s, some countries thought that if you got your ten commandments of reform wholesale right-thou shall privatize state-owned industries, thou shall deregulate utilities, thou shall lower tariffs and encourage export industries, etc.-you had a successful development strategy

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99. The basical macroeconomics indicators

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